July 2026 Market Update — Bozeman and Big Sky
July delivered some of the most encouraging activity numbers either market has seen in a while. Bozeman posted its highest monthly sales total since 2021. Big Sky saw pending activity surge. Both markets are moving in the right direction heading into the back half of the year.
Bozeman — Sales up, inventory up, pricing down
134 homes closed in Bozeman in July, the highest monthly sales figure since 2021. That’s up 32.7% year over year and up 13% on a year-to-date basis. The market is transacting at a pace that hasn’t been seen since the peak years, which tells you something important about where buyer demand actually is when homes are priced for today’s market.
The price story is more nuanced. The median sales price in July came in at $755,500, down 12.2% from July 2025. Year-to-date the median sales price is running approximately 2.8% below 2024, with condos and townhomes tracking about 3.4% below on a year-to-date basis. Prices have come off their peak. What hasn’t come off is demand, and that distinction matters.
A few things worth understanding about that $755,500 median:
- 70% of July closings were under $1 million
- 65% were condos and townhomes
- The entry price point was $273,000
That product mix explains much of the median. The market isn’t crashing from $900K to $755K. It’s closing a higher proportion of attached and lower-priced product, which pulls the median down. The underlying demand is real across all price points.
Days on market fell to 15 in July, down 26.8% year over year. Homes are selling 30% faster than they were a year ago. That is not a slow market. That is a market where well-priced homes are finding buyers quickly.
Inventory continues to build. End of period inventory reached 504 active listings, up 3.3% from June. New listings came in at 204, up 13.3% year over year and up 41% year over year on a year-to-date basis. The absorption rate is running at 27%, above the 15% to 20% range typically associated with a balanced healthy market per the National Association of Realtors. Sales are outpacing new listings, and that combination of rising inventory and sales outpacing supply is exactly what a healthy market looks like in transition.
New pendings came in at 119, up 20% year over year. Buyers are active. The pipeline heading into August is strong.
Big Sky — Sales take off
Big Sky had a strong July. 9 homes closed, flat year over year but up 100% from June. More importantly, the activity under the surface is the real story.
18 new pending contracts were signed in July, up 80% year over year and up from just 2 club pendings last year. The club had 10 pending contracts in July, a number that stands out against the backdrop of a market that has been waiting for confidence to return. Only 3 of the 18 new pendings were new construction. The other 15 were existing resale product, which tells you buyers are finding value in what’s already built and available.
Year-to-date sales in Big Sky are up 22%. That’s a meaningful trend, not a single month anomaly.
The median sales price came in at $1,775,000, up 11% year over year. Days on market dropped to 12, down from 160 days in June. That dramatic shift reflects the difference in product mix between the two months rather than a sudden market acceleration, but the direction is right. Condo sales made up the bulk of July’s activity, with 14 units under contract by month end, all but one being existing resale product.
Inventory sits at 139 active listings, down 8% year over year. New listings came in at 29, down 17% year over year but on par with the year-to-date pace. Supply is tightening even as demand builds.
What both markets are telling us
The July data across Bozeman and Big Sky points in one direction: buyers who have been watching from the sidelines are starting to move. In Bozeman, that’s showing up in transaction volume at levels not seen since 2021 and days on market falling to 15. In Big Sky, it’s showing up in pending activity that is up 80% year over year and club contracts that jumped from 2 to 10 in a single month.
Pricing in both markets has moderated from peak levels, and that moderation is part of what’s unlocking demand. Homes priced for today’s market are moving fast. Homes priced for 2022 are still sitting.
The back half of summer is historically when decisions made during PBR week, Wildlands, and July visits turn into calls to real estate agents. If that pattern holds this year, and the pending numbers suggest it might, August and September could continue this momentum.
TL;DR — July 2026 by the numbers
Bozeman
- 134 homes closed, the highest monthly total since 2021, up 32.7% year over year
- Median sales price $755,500, down 12.2% year over year, driven largely by product mix with 65% condos and townhomes and 70% under $1M
- Homes are selling in 15 days on average, 30% faster than a year ago
- 504 active listings and 204 new listings, with sales outpacing new supply at a 27% absorption rate
- 119 new pendings, up 20% year over year — the pipeline heading into August is strong
Big Sky
- 9 closings in July, up 100% from June, with year-to-date sales up 22%
- Median sales price $1,775,000, up 11% year over year
- 18 new pending contracts, up 80% year over year — club pendings jumped from 2 to 10 in one month
- Days on market dropped to 12, down from 160 in June
- Inventory at 139 active listings, down 8% year over year, supply is tightening
Outlaw Realty | Big Sky & Bozeman
